The Apathetic Baseline: Why LTV Stalls and What to Do Instead

Hey everyone,

Welcome back for another bite to chew on.

“Is this our actual baseline, or just our apathetic one?”

That’s the question Patrick Barnes (CEO of AMP and co-founder of Lifetimely) posed to us.

After working with thousands of DTC brands, he’s seen the same pattern repeat: Teams believe they’re optimizing for LTV, but they’re really just observing whatever retention just…happens.

That gap between passive and intentional LTV creation is massive. In most cases, it’s the difference between a stagnant 7-figure brand and a compounding 8-figure one.

First-order profitability keeps the lights on. But LTV growth is what makes scaling sustainable.

🍽️ On the Menu:

• Why Most Brands Plateau: Inside the LTV Apathy Loop

• How One Experiment Can Shift Your LTV Curve

• Where Profit Disappears (And How Operators Win It Back)

Patrick dropped a bunch of knowledge in this one. Check out our whole conversation here:

Find us on Youtube and Apple as well.

🔍 Why Most Brands Plateau: Inside the LTV Apathy Loop

At Obvi, we spent years optimizing for MER (daily spend versus daily revenue).

Clean, straightforward. And deceptive. 

Once iOS broke attribution, we were forced to look deeper:

• New customer acquisition cost vs all customer purchases

• Contribution margin by cohort

• Profitability beyond the first purchase

That’s when the real story emerged…

Our MER was inflated because we were mostly retargeting existing customers. Obvi’s acquisition engine was actually underperforming, and first-time buyers were often unprofitable, but our MER still looked fine.

This isn’t unique to us. Patrick has seen the same pattern play out across hundreds of brands using Lifetimely.

In most cases, the data is there. 

The breakdown happens at the organizational level since DTC teams are often split by channel and function:

• Growth teams and agencies chase ROAS

• Retention teams build flows and campaigns

• Creative and operations juggle execution

• Founders or VPs try to hold it all together

LTV becomes the metric everyone agrees is important, but no one owns. And when no one owns it, it doesn’t improve.

Don’t Give Up Too Early 

That’s a structural problem.

But it leads to a strategic one: Even when brands do focus on LTV, they often write it off too quickly, especially if they’re selling so-called “one-and-done” products.

Durable goods brands may assume repeat purchases aren’t in the cards. But in Patrick’s experience, they often underestimate how much LTV can be unlocked with the right offer, moment, or message.

Ridge Wallet is a clear example. Their early data showed classic one-and-done behavior. But over time, new patterns emerged. 

📈 They started driving up LTV through: 

• Gifting on holidays and birthdays

• Limited-edition collaborations and product drops

• Premium product upgrades

These weren’t flukes. They were engineered re-purchasing opportunities for existing customers.

“People assume LTV doesn’t matter for durable goods,” Patrick said. “But a good product can be gifted, upgraded, or re-purchased if the brand creates reasons to do it.”

🧪 The Retention Breakthrough: How One Experiment Can Shift Your LTV Curve

Once you accept that LTV won’t improve by default, the next step is building a system to raise it on purpose (without needing a perfectly aligned org chart).

Patrick’s framework is simple, but powerful:

1. Find your baseline LTV

2. Make it visible to the whole team (Slack, WhatsApp, doesn’t matter)

3. Pick one experiment

4. Run it

5. Measure it

6. Turn what works into a repeatable play

Even loosely coordinated teams see impact after just one or two tests. The key is focus.

🎯 How We Applied This at Obvi

Our first LTV insight came from subscription data. 

The biggest drop-off happened between orders 1 and 2. Customers grabbed the “subscribe-and-save” discount, then canceled before their second shipment. 

🎁 Our first test → A mystery gift 

If they stayed through order two. We didn’t reveal what it was, only that it was exclusive to repeat subscribers.

🔥 Result → Churn between orders 1 and 2 dropped by 86%.

The next drop-off came at order 5. Subscribers were stockpiling too much product. So we tested giving them month 5 free.

Retention to month 6 jumped. Whether they gifted the extra product or just felt valued, they stuck around.

But the real unlock wasn’t the tactic, it was the insight: The best way to increase LTV is to stop churn before it starts. 

🚫 Find the drop-off, then give customers a reason to stay.

This works for non-subscription brands too.

One collagen brand Patrick worked with had a hero SKU driving 70% of revenue. So they reorganized the entire purchase flow based on different entry points:

• Facebook ad traffic → LP and cart upsells matched the ad

• Klaviyo traffic → returning customers pushed to subscription

• Post-purchase → prioritized replenishment of the same hero SKU

This reframing turned a messy SKU strategy into a profit engine.

💡 The takeaway

You don’t need perfect org alignment to grow LTV. You need visibility, a clear drop-off to target, and one good experiment.

We scaled Obvi past $100M. But not without some close calls.

There were moments where cash got tight fast. Even when revenue was booming.

That’s why I (Ron) am hosting DTC Cash Flow Survival Guide: Scale Without Going Broke event with the team at Kintsugi.

We’ll break down the reasons brands run out of cash, what saved us, and how to build a system that scales without sleepless nights.

If you’re growing fast but feel like you’re flying blind, this is for you.

👉 Save your spot

🕳️ Where Profit Disappears (And How Operators Win It Back)

LTV isn’t just a marketing problem. It’s often an operations leak.

Patrick’s seen it across hundreds of brands. The obsession is always with COGS, but the biggest upside usually comes from OpEx.

That’s why high-performing teams do ruthless OpEx audits. They ask: Did this initiative move the needle in the past 3 months, or is it just inertia?

At Obvi, we applied this mindset to our product line. We used Lifetimely to analyze retention by flavor. Instead of keeping SKUs we liked, we cut the ones that didn’t enhance LTV or drive repurchase.

There’s also one of the most overlooked growth levers in DTC: the post-purchase window. Every brand knows about upsells, but too many treat them like an afterthought.

💡 The easiest way to start: Use post-purchase logic to steer customers toward your highest-retention SKU. 

If they didn’t start there, this is your best chance to redirect the journey.

Ruthless Focus Beats Endless Priority Lists

Another killer habit: the “bottom 20%” audit.

Patrick recommends cutting the lowest-confidence projects every quarter. If it’s been running for 90+ days with no clear upside, kill it.

When every meeting ends with five “P0 priorities,” nothing’s really being prioritized.

In truth, most real wins take hours, not weeks.

• SKU rationalization

• Baseline LTV analysis

• Post-purchase flow updates

These are “single-digit hour” activities with compounding impact.

Don’t just chase tactics. Buy back your time and put it to work on stuff that will truly move the business forward.

🧰 Operator Toolbox

Kintsugi - The last thing you need to worry about is sales tax compliance. We use Kintsugi to take this off our plate so we can focus on growth a profit. Start your free trial.

AMT - A new AI platform we’re using to seed influencers at scale. Try their AI Agent Lyra → 

Lifetimely - An easy way to track profit, CAC, and LTV across products and cohorts. Turn spreadsheet chaos into clean data and clear growth opportunities. Check it out → 

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