Why 30% of Your Ad Spend Might Be Doing Nothing

Hey everyone,

Welcome back for another bite to chew on.

We just had Preston Rutherford—co-founder of Chubbies, Marathon and Loop on the podcast and he dropped some insights that'll make you rethink everything about attribution.

Most brands optimize campaigns for 7-day click attribution, chase daily ROAS targets, and assume their ads are working because the numbers look good. 

But what if 30% of your ad spend is doing absolutely nothing?

That's what Chubbies discovered when they realized their attribution model was missing the people who matter—the ones who see your ads, remember your brand, and buy weeks later without clicking anything.

Today we break down how they shifted from ROAS obsession to building lasting brand value, plus the email strategy that people forwarded instead of buying from, and the customer service approach that created 7-year loyalty.

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Chubbies hit the plateau every scaling brand faces. Growth was getting more expensive, and adding more promos was the only way to hit targets.

That's when Preston realized the fundamental math problem: In order to 2X revenue, you need to reach 2X as many people. 

But reaching more people costs more money each year. When CPMs keep rising and your target audience stays the same size, the economics eventually break down.

The Real Problem

Chubbies was optimizing for people who click an ad and buy within 7 days. But think about your own behavior, when did you last click an ad and immediately purchase? 

Most people see ads, remember the brand, then buy later through Google search or by going directly to the website.

This meant their attribution system could only see a tiny fraction of the people their ads actually influenced. The result? 

About 30% of their ad spend looked like it was driving zero growth, even though it was probably working.

How They Fixed It

Chubbies made a counterintuitive move. Instead of spending 100% on direct response ads optimized for immediate purchases, they shifted half their budget to brand awareness and memorable content.

The immediate result looked terrible, their click-through rates and ROAS dropped. But something better happened over time. 

More customers started finding them through branded Google searches. More people visited their website directly. Revenue from these "organic" channels grew faster than their paid advertising revenue.

They stopped hunting for customers and started building an asset that made customers come to them.

99% of brands use email to push products. Chubbies realized they could build something bigger.

They created "The Weekender," their weekly Friday email series that kicked off everyone's weekend. But instead of just promoting shorts, these emails focused on creating content people actually wanted to read and share-building a community around a lifestyle, not just driving immediate sales.

The Bold Content That Made It Work

One Friday, instead of featuring products, Chubbies sent subscribers an open letter to Abercrombie's CEO calling for an investor vote to stop making cargo shorts. 

They called them "a blight on humanity" and asked shareholders to cease production entirely.

Risky for a weekly email blast? Absolutely. 

They worried about getting sued. But subscribers loved it, shared it, and it went viral—creating a rallying cry for their community.

Another Weekender email turned product failures into entertainment. 

When several products flopped, instead of quietly discounting them, Chubbies sent their email list a hilarious breakdown of why the products failed—and ridiculous reasons subscribers should buy them anyway. 

One looked like a picnic table, so they said it would perfectly camouflage mustard stains at barbecues.

Why This Email Strategy Worked

These Weekender emails didn't drive immediate sales, but subscribers forwarded them to friends. That organic sharing grew their email list and created compound value that traditional product-focused emails never could. 

They made their weekly email feel like "the best post from your buddies" rather than corporate marketing.

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When scaling a business, the natural instinct is to automate customer service and create distance between you and individual customers. 

Chubbies did the opposite, they got ridiculously personal, even when it didn't seem scalable.

Getting Personal at Scale

Chubbies put the founder's actual cell phone number on customer notes that came with every order.

This led to texts years later, including one on his wedding day while he was about to walk down the aisle. 

Instead of ignoring it, he responded and helped with the order.

Another customer texted years after his last purchase: "I've had these coasters on my coffee table for seven years and my Great Dane just ate them. Can I get more?" 

The coasters were small branded gifts Chubbies included with orders as surprises, a tiny touch that created a lasting brand memory.

Why This Scales

These personal moments become stories people tell others. One wedding day text generates dozens of conversations about your brand at parties, work, and social media. 

It builds word-of-mouth that no amount of paid advertising can replicate.